The November edition of the DAT Truckload Volume Index (TVI), which was recently issued by DAT Freight & Analytics, showed a solid post-Thanksgiving bump in truckload freight volumes compared to previous Novembers.
The DAT Truckload Volume Index reflects the change in the number of loads with a pickup date during that month, with the actual index number normalized each month to accommodate any new data sources without distortion, with a baseline of 100 equal to the number of loads moved in January 2015. It measures dry van, refrigerated (reefer), and flatbed trucks moved by truckload carriers.
The DAT Truckload Volume Index reflects the change in the number of loads with a pickup date DAT’s data highlighted the following takeaways for truckload volumes, load-to-truck ratios, and rates, for the month of November, including:
“Thanksgiving and Black Friday were early in the month, which meant there was almost a full week of shipment activity after the holiday,” said Ken Adamo, DAT chief of analytics, in a statement. “Businesses running leaner inventories compared to the last couple of years are taking advantage of lower transportation rates as they position goods ahead of peak retail shopping. For every 10 carriers that left the market in November, eight new ones came in. There’s been an acceleration of capacity out of the long-haul freight sector, where carriers are subject to spot-rate volatility and high diesel costs, and a shift back to other parts of the economy, like regional dedicated operations.”
In an interview with LM, Adamo explained there were a few major factors working in the direction of the market, including cost pressures coming down with diesel coming off of its summer highs. And he added that was reflected in the rate of carrier attrition numbers slowing down considerably in November, with December holding up pretty well.
“December is usually a bad month, because there is not a lot of addition and not a lot of people get into the market in December, as there is still the typical background attrition,” he said. “December is outperforming seasonally so far. It has also been a strong retail season with the one caveat being that the strong retail registered numbers don’t ‘one-for-one’ reflect because inventories were still high, with retailers a little bullish on the restocking. I think there was still a lot of backed-up inventory that got flushed through this, which means it did not need to get shipped, or at least not shipped through the whole supply chain. It may have been for some final mile stuff but not so much for the first and middle mile.”
Looking at December, Adamo said that leading into it was the post-Thanksgiving bump, where things are extremely busy, coupled with an attempt to taper off, followed by a mid-month ramp-up.
“In transportation and logistics, the week before the actual week before Christmas can be very slow,” he said. “With Christmas falling on a Monday, the week before will be crazy busy for freight activity.”